Annual Reports of the L.S.A.F.C:

1992-3 ~ 1993-4 ~ 1994-5 ~ 1995-6 ~ 1996-7 ~ 1997-8 ~ 1998-9 ~ 1999-00 ~ 2000-01

1995-6 SEASON:

ANNUAL REPORT * 1995-1996
PREPARED BY BRIAN MURRAY
APRIL 20, 1996

DURING MY PREVIOUS TWO SEASONS WITH THE LA SAL AVALANCHE FORECAST CENTER (LSAFC) MAJOR CHANGES AND CHALLENGES HAVE BEEN THE NORM. THIS YEAR WAS BUSINESS AS USUAL. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE CENTER'S DIRECTOR, DAVE MEDARA, I FOUND MYSELF IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT LAST SPRING. DAVE LEFT IN LATE MARCH TO TAKE A POSITION WITH U.D.O.T. AS A PART-TIME FORECASTER AND WITH HOPES OF AN EVENTUAL FULL TIME POSITION HE COULD COUNT ON FROM YEAR TO YEAR. DAVE GOT HIS FULL TIME POSITION THIS WINTER AND AS FOR MYSELF, I DECIDED TO TAKE THE WHEEL AGAIN FOR THE 95-96 WINTER SEASON. THE FIRST THING I NOTICED ABOUT THE "VEHICLE" THAT I WAS GIVEN IS THAT A COUPLE OF IT'S TIRES HAD GONE FLAT. ANOTHER DISTURBING FACT WAS THAT THERE WERE NO PASSENGERS, I WAS ALONE. FOREST SERVICE BUDGET CUTS REDUCED THE STAFF TO ONE PART-TIME POSITION WITH NO ASSISTANT OR ALTERNATE. I WAS BEGINNING TO LONG FOR THE GOOD OLD DAYS WHEN I HELD WHAT HAS BEEN CALLED BY SOME "THE BEST JOB IN SOUTHERN UTAH", THE ASSISTANT FORECASTER'S POSITION. NOT WANTING TO SEE THE FORECAST CENTER FADE AWAY, I DECIDED THAT SOMETHING WAS BETTER THAN NOTHING AND MADE THE BEST OF IT. INSTEAD OF 5 DAY A WEEK ADVISORIES, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO UPDATE FORECASTS TWICE A WEEK AND DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO RECORDED ADVISORIES ACCESSIBLE BY PHONE, ADVISORY UPDATES WHERE FAXED TO THE MOAB INFORMATION CENTER AND ALSO BROADCAST ON THE LOCAL FM RADIO STATION, KZMU.

      AS FOR WINTER, IT TOOK IT'S TIME IN ARRIVING TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. SKIING WASN'T POSSIBLE UNTIL MID-JANUARY AND THE SNOWPACK DIDN'T APPROACH AVERAGE AMOUNTS UNTIL MARCH. THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF WINTER DID ALLOW ME TO COMFORTABLY DEAL WITH THE TASKS OF WEATHER STATION DEPLOYMENT AND TROUBLESHOOTING, MAKING FRIENDS WITH THE COMPUTER SYSTEM, AND JUST GENERALLY SETTLING IN BEFORE GETTING DOWN TO BUSINESS. ONCE WINTER DID ARRIVE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE FREQUENCY OF STORMS MATCHED THOSE THAT I HAD SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS TWO SEASONS. THE LACK OF SNOW DURING NOVEMBER THROUGH MID-JANUARY PUT THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR THE SEASON AT 20% LESS THAN AVERAGE (200 INCHES). AS OF APRIL 15TH, THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR THE SEASON AT 9,600 FEET WAS 166 INCHES BUT THE SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK WAS UP TO AVERAGE AMOUNTS. AVALANCHEWISE, THERE HAD BEEN NO REPORTED CLOSE CALLS AND NO FATALITIES.

OCTOBER

      SUNNY, WARM DAYS PREVAILED THROUGH MOST OF OCTOBER AND A COUPLE OF DUSTINGS OF SNOW IS ALL THAT THE LA SALS SAW. DAVE MEDARA, WHO WAS STILL "SUMMERING" IN MOAB WAS CONTRACTED TO HELP WITH SETTING UP TWO REMOTE/ACCESS WEATHER STATIONS. DAVE WAS SOON DUE TO HEAD NORTH AND LATE OCTOBER WAS HIS ONLY WINDOW OF TIME TO ASSIST ME WITH THIS YEARLY TASK. THE WIND STATION ON LAUREL RIDGE (11,700 FT) WENT UP WITHOUT A HITCH. IT WAS THE FIRST TIME THAT DAVE AND I WERE ABLE TO WORK ON THIS STATION IN T-SHIRTS NOT TO MENTION FINISH UP WITHOUT FROZEN HANDS AND FEET. THE PRECIPITATION STATION BELOW GEYSER PASS (9,600 FT) ON THE OTHER HAND WAS MORE OF A CHORE. THIS STATION HAD BEEN IN THE WORKS SINCE EARLY LAST SEASON AND THIS YEAR WAS IT'S FIRST DEPLOYMENT. JUST LIKE THE WIND STATION IN IT'S EARLY DAYS, THERE WERE BUGS TO WORK OUT. THIS STATION WAS DEVELOPED TO GIVE REAL- TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WATER CONTENT, AND TEMPERATURE READINGS. THIS INFORMATION WAS VALUABLE IN THAT IT ALLOWED ME TO PROVIDE MORNING FORECASTS WITH CURRENT INFORMATION. IN THE PAST, FORECASTS WERE GENERALLY UPDATED IN THE EVENING AFTER A TOUR AND OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL/WATER CONTENT AMOUNTS COULD ONLY BE GUESSED. FOR THOSE UNFAMILIAR WITH THE TERRAIN, MOAB LIES ROUGHLY 5,000 FT LOWER THAN THIS PRECIPITATION SITE AND GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IS AN HOUR AWAY BY VEHICLE.

NOVEMBER

      MORE WEATHER STATION WORK. FOLLOWING A STORM ON NOVEMBER 1ST WHICH LEFT BEHIND 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW, THE WIND STATION QUIT WORKING. LIGHTNING WAS THE MOST LIKELY SUSPECT. EVENTUALLY THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE EVIDENCE OF A FRIED POTENTIOMETER ON THE WIND VANE AND A NON-FUNCTIONING TRANSMITTER. THE PRECIPITATION STATION IS BACK FROM REPAIR WITH A NEW BATTERY AND A RADIO LINK IS FINALLY ESTABLISHED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TEMPERATURE PROBE, THE INSTRUMENTS HOWEVER WERE NOT READING CORRECTLY. MUCH HEAD SCRATCHING FOLLOWED. THE ANNUAL FUND-RAISING PARTY HOSTED BY CLUB RIO WAS A GREAT SUCCESS, THE BEST TO DATE. THE REST OF THE MONTH WAS SPENT TROUBLE-SHOOTING WEATHER STATION PROBLEMS. WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE 12 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL DURING THE MONTH COULD BE FOUND IN NORTHERLY GULLIES IN THE FORM OF ROTTEN TG AND GRAUPEL LAYERS.

DECEMBER

      THE WIND STATION IS BACK ON LINE IN EARLY DECEMBER. PRECIPITATION STATION PROBLEMS CONTINUE AND THE SNOW DEPTH SENSOR IS RETURNED FOR REPLACEMENT. BY MID-MONTH IT HAS ONLY SNOWED 10 INCHES AND THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SKIING ARE NIL. ON DECEMBER 20TH, I'M PUT ON FURLOUGH AS PER NEWT AND COMPANY. I'M TOLD THAT UNLESS THERE IS AN EXTREME DANGER TO PUBLIC SAFETY, DON'T COME TO WORK. FORTUNATELY(?), IT DIDN'T SNOW FOR THE REST OF DECEMBER. DESPITE THIS MANDATORY VACATION, I DID TAKE A HIKE INTO THE LA SALS ON MY OWN TIME IN LATE DECEMBER. NORTHERLY TERRAIN WAS STILL SETTING THE STAGE FOR FUTURE AVALANCHES WITH WIND SLABS OVERLYING VARYING DEPTHS OF TG. SOUTHERLY SLOPES WERE BASICALLY DEVOID OF SNOW. A STORM WHICH PUT DOWN TWO FEET PLUS OF SNOW IN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BROUGHT 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE LA SALS ON NEW YEAR'S EVE BRINGING THE TOTAL FOR DECEMBER UP TO 16 INCHES.

JANUARY

      ON JANUARY 8TH I RETURNED TO WORK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, BOTH WEATHER STATIONS WERE WORKING AND A NEW PROGRAM FROM DAN JUDD WAS INSTALLED TO THE COMPUTER SYSTEM TO GRAPHICALLY DISPLAY AND ARCHIVE DATA. CREDIT AND THANKS ARE GIVEN TO DAN JUDD, DAVE MEDARA, JIM HARTE, AUSTIN McHUGH, AND RAINE GUYMON FOR THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS OF EXPERTISE ON REMOTE WEATHER STATIONS. A LATE SKI SWAP WAS HELD MID-MONTH BUT INTEREST WAS UNDERSTANDABLY LOW. WINTER WAS STILL PLAYING IT'S WAITING GAME AND OLD TIMERS IN TOWN WERE TALKING ABOUT AN "OPEN WINTER", COULD THEY BE RIGHT? MANY WERE BEGINNING TO BELIEVE , BUT IT WAS NOT MEANT TO BE. ON THE 17TH WINTER ARRIVED WITH A GOOD WET STORM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH DUMPED 14 INCHES AT 9,600 FT. DURING A TOUR THE FOLLOWING DAY, WHUMPFING AND PROPAGATING CRACKS ACCOMPANIED US THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AVALANCHE OBSERVATIONS WERE LIMITED TO THE GOLD BASIN AREA BUT THREE LARGE SLIDES ON NORTHERLY TERRAIN DROVE THE POINT HOME, THE AVALANCHE HAZARD HAD GONE FROM NON-EXISTENT TO HIGH. ANOTHER STORM STARTING ON THE 23RD AND ENDING ON THE 25TH PUT DOWN AN ADDITIONAL 16 INCHES. TWO STORMS WORTH OF SNOW SITTING ON TOP OF TEN INCHES OF ROTTEN TG, ALONG WITH STRONG NW WINDS PROMPTED AN AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE LA SALS. ODDLY, NO NATURAL RELEASES WERE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS WARNING. CONTRARY TO MY CALL, THE SNOW PACK HAD ADJUSTED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ADDITIONAL WEIGHT, BUT STABILITY TESTS WHERE STILL FRIGHTENING ENOUGH TO KEEP ME WAITING FOR A BIG AVALANCHE CYCLE. WITH AVALANCHE HAZARDS STILL HIGH, THE MONTH CLOSED OUT WITH A STORM WHICH LASTED INTO THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF FEBRUARY, LEAVING BEHIND 14 INCHES. LIKE THE LAST STORM, THIS ONE WAS OUT OF THE NW AND WINDS WHERE STRONG. WIND SPEEDS DURING THESE THREE STORM PERIODS ALL AVERAGED AT 35-40 MPH AND MAXIMUM GUSTS WHERE 75-90MPH. THE SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH TOTALED AT 43 INCHES.

FEBRUARY

      THE AVALANCHE CYCLE THAT I HAD BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT OCCURRED FOLLOWING THE STORM WHICH ENDED ON THE 2ND. MANY LARGE PATHS WITH NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ASPECT RELEASED TO THE GROUND. FORTUNATELY, NO ONE TAUNTED THE DRAGONS IN THE LA SALS DURING THIS TIME AND NO INCIDENTS OCCURRED. FOLLOWING THIS AVALANCHE CYCLE, THE "THAW" THAT USUALLY SETS IN DURING JANUARY CHOSE TO TAKE PLACE IN FEBRUARY. AFTER ALL, WE WERE A MONTH OR TWO BEHIND THE USUAL SCHEDULE. THE SNOWPACK GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT AND THE OVERALL HAZARD DROPPED TO MODERATE. BY THE 10TH, CORN CONDITIONS COULD BE FOUND ON SUNNY ASPECTS YET STASHES OF SETTLED POWDER ALSO EXISTED ON SHADY ASPECTS. WET SLIDE ACTIVITY WAS THE MOST PREVALENT HAZARD DURING THIS TIME. ON THE 22ND, WINTER RETURNED WITH 18 INCHES OF SNOW AT 9,600 FT. THIS WAS FOLLOWED FOUR DAYS LATER BY ANOTHER STORM WHICH LEFT 16 INCHES. THESE STORMS PUT THE AVALANCHE HAZARD ON STEEP, NORTHERLY TERRAIN BACK UP IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. SKIING AND BOARDING CONDITIONS ON LOWER ANGLE SLOPES WAS EXCELLENT. A TOTAL OF 38 INCHES OF SNOW FELL DURING FEBRUARY.

MARCH

      BY MARCH DEEP INSTABILITIES IN THE SNOWPACK WHERE MINIMAL AND NEW SNOW AVALANCHES WERE THE MAIN CONCERN. EARLY MARCH ALSO MARKED THE BEGINNING OF "COMPUTER HELL" AT THE FORECAST CENTER. PROGRAMS WERE SLOWLY FALLING APART ALONG WITH OTHER STRANGE OCCURRENCES. I WAS MADE PAINFULLY AWARE OF HOW DEPENDENT I HAD BECOME ON THAT MAGIC BOX ON MY DESK. WHILE THE COMPUTER WAS IN FOR REPAIRS, I T WAS BACK TO PENCIL AND PAPER. WEATHER INFORMATION WAS COMPILED USING PHONE CONTACTS AND PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO THE SKY VERSUS THOSE COLORFUL PICTURES ON THE CRT. ALL IN ALL LESSONS WHERE LEARNED. DURING THE 5TH AND 6TH, 17 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT 9,600 FT. THIS NEW SNOW BONDED WELL TO THE OLD SNOW BUT A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE NEW SNOW PUT THE HAZARD AT MODERATE. WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAILED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THE AVALANCHE HAZARD BECAME ISOLATED TO WIND LOADED AREAS. NOT MUCH HAPPENED EXCEPT A COUPLE OF DUSTINGS UP UNTIL THE 23RD WHEN IT SNOWED 12 INCHES. THIS PUT THE HAZARD BACK UP TO MODERATE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN WET SLIDES BECAME THE CONCERN AS TEMPERATURES WARMED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. MARCH FINISHED UP WITH 33 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

APRIL

      THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL WAS CHARACTERIZED BY SPRING CONDITIONS. WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES PUT THE WET SLIDE HAZARD UP TO MODERATE BY MID- DAY EACH DAY AND SEVERAL WET SLIDES WERE OBSERVED FROM TIME TO TIME. ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THE 9TH AND 10TH CAUSED THIS HAZARD TO OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY BUT NO LARGE RELEASES WERE RECORDED. THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ON APRIL 12TH; THE FOLLOWING DAY IT SNOWED 18 INCHES AT 9,600 FT AND 30 INCHES AT 11,00 FT. THE SPRING SUN WASTED NO TIME IN TURNING THIS NEW SNOW TO GLOP AS SKIES CLEARED. AS OF THIS WRITING, SPRING STORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF THOSE IN SEEK OF CORN.

THE DECISION TO MAKE THE LSAFC A PART-TIME ENTITY PROVED TO BE LESS THAN EFFECTIVE AT TIMES. SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING BUT MANY THINGS FELL THROUGH THE CRACKS; THE ONLY PUBLIC CONTACTS MADE THIS SEASON WERE TRAINING SESSIONS WITH THE LOCAL WINTER RESCUE TEAM. NO AVALANCHE AWARENESS TALKS, NO MEDIA CONTACTS, AND NO AVALANCHE SAFETY CLASSES. RECORD KEEPING WAS ALSO CUT BACK OR DISCONTINUED. DURING A BIG SNOW YEAR WITH THE CONSTANT POTENTIAL FOR UNFORESEEN TECHNICAL GLITCHES, ONE PART-TIME PERSON COULD NOT ISSUE ACCURATE AND TIMELY FORECASTS...WEATHER AND AVALANCHES ARE NOT PART-TIME. AT THE CRUX OF THIS ISSUE ARE CONGRESSIONAL MANDATES WITH RESPECT TO THE FOREST SERVICE RECREATION BUDGET AND ALL IT'S MYSTERY. A PRECEDENT OF PROVIDING PUBLIC SAFETY FOR WINTER TRAVELERS HAS BEEN MADE FOR THE LA SALS. MANY WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT CONTINUE. THE LONG-TERM FUTURE OF THE LSAFC REMAINS A QUESTION MARK. THE LSAFC ISN'T ABLE TO TAP INTO A LOCAL NETWORK OF SKI AREA AVALANCHE INFORMATION NOR GAIN FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM A LARGE, NEARBY POPULATION. FUND-RAISING EFFORTS BY THE LOCAL FRIENDS OF THE LSAFC HAVE SHOWN THAT A GROWING PART OF THE LOCAL POPULATION SUPPORTS THE CENTER AND WISHES TO SEE IT'S OPERATION CONTINUE BUT THE OVERALL POPULATION IS SMALL. ALTHOUGH WINTER VISITATION TO THE LA SALS WAS NOTICEABLY LESS THAN USUAL THIS SEASON DUE TO THE LOW AMOUNT OF SNOW, AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF BOTH LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL WINTER RECREATIONISTS CONTINUE TO TRAVEL HERE EACH YEAR TO SAMPLE IT'S BEAUTY AND SOLITUDE. THERE IS HOPE THAT RESTRUCTURING HOW FOREST SERVICE AVALANCHE CENTERS ARE ADMINISTRATED MAY SUPPLY THE NEEDED FUNDS...A TURNING POINT SEEMS TO BE AT HAND. AT THE VERY LEAST, THE LSAFC SHOULD RETURN NEXT YEAR BUT IN EXACTLY WHAT FORM IS STILL UNKNOWN. WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND NEXT YEAR IS ANYONE'S GUESS.

1996-7 SEASON:

Annual Report 1995-1996
Prepared by Doug Lewis

May 7, 1997

      The departure of the former full-time director Dave Madera in the spring of 1995, has led to a number of major changes for the La Sal Avalanche Forecast Center. During the winter of 1995-96, the forecast center was operated on a part-time basis with less than optimal results. After examining the needs of the La Sal Avalanche Forecast Center, it was decided to hire a full-time forecaster and try to utilize a number of volunteers to aid in field observations. After a long and arduous hiring process, I finally started on January 21, 1997 as the full-time forecaster for the La Sal Avalanche Forecast Center (LSAFC). Prior to this the former part-time forecaster, Brian Murray, was operating the forecast center on a limited basis. The forecasts were updated as snow conditions required with limited field observations. After a rather hasty introduction to the program, I was tossed into the conundrum of government service. During my internship, Brian answered a litany of questions as well as helping me with the more mundane tasks such as set up the weather station. We finally got the weather station up and operating with the help of Dan Judd and Bruce Tremper on January 31, 1997. It would have been an incredible struggle without their invaluable assistance. At the end of February, Brian retreated to warmer climes, leaving me to fend for my self, the honeymoon was over. Being the sole forecaster, I focused on forecasting for the weekends or during big snow events and getting acquainted with office procedures and politics during the week. Due to the late start I was forced to focus my attention on getting the program up and running. This left many other aspects of the job far down the priority list. Fund raising, community awareness, and avalanche education as well as a number of other critical functions suffered due to the untimely start.

      With such a late start, I had to interpolate what data was available to me to develop a summary of the winter. The data suggests that the first significant snowfall for the 1996-97 season arrived October 20, 1996 with about 3" of new. There after storms came through on a fairly regular basis through January. This helped prevent the formation of the usual deep slab instabilities that are common to the La Sal mountains. When I arrived on January 21, the La Sal mountains were 127% of normal. The latter half of the winter, snow fall started to decrease and by the end of February we were looking at a snowpack that was 97% of normal. This trend continued through the remainder of the winter season with the exception of a couple of major storms that blew through the first week of March and April. As of April 30th , the snow total for the Geyser Pass Trailhead study site at 9600' is 212", this is slightly above the average of 200". The snow water equivalent [ 6.7"] is 85% of normal while the total precipitation for the year is 129% of normal. During the 1996-97 winter season there were no reported close calls or fatalities.

October

      Mild weather prevailed throughout the west till late October. The first snowfall that remained on the ground occurred on the 20th with 3" recorded at the Geyser Pass Trailhead study site. This was followed by a major snow event on the 25th that dropped approximately 14". Another storm on the 28th deposited an additional 8" for a total of 20" for the month and a base of 13".

November

      Only one storm was recorded during early November with 4" of snow recorded on the 7th. Things started to pick up by mid month when a series of systems moved through southeast Utah. The strongest storm passed through on the 15th with 12" recorded at the snowtel site. This was followed by a weak disturbance on the 17th which left behind 2". The month finished off with an additional 9" recorded on the 30th for a monthly total of 32" and a base of 17.Temperatures remained very mild throughout the month.

December

      December was characterized by regular modest snowfalls throughout most of the month. No major storms were recorded during December and temperatures remained very mild with highs around 30 degrees during much of the month. The frequent storm intervals and mild temperatures set the stage for a stronger than normal basal snowpack in the La Sals. Depth hoar development seemed to be confined to the upper elevations where the early season snow remained unaffected by the mild temperatures at the lower elevations. December's snowfall total was 30" with 27" of accumulated snow.

January

      A series of storms moved through southeastern Utah at regular intervals during the month of January. However, none of them were major snow producers for the La Sals. Mild temperatures continued thru January with highs regularly approaching or exceeding 30 degrees and only a few nights where temperature fell into the single digits. The lower snowpack remained reasonablely strong with only isolated deep slab avalanche activity reported at the higher elevations. These were primarily associated with wind events following storm passage. I officially opened the La Sal Avalanche Forecast Center on the 25th with the help of Brian Murray. Brian had been the part-time assistant till Dave Madera left, he then stepped into the part-time forecaster position for the remainder of the 94-95 season. Brian continued to operate the center for the 95-96 season but on a part-time basis only. This season his primary role was to complete some of the early season field work before my arrival and help me become familiar with the area and the center's operation. Dan Judd and Bruce Tremper came down at the end of the month to help us get the weather system up and to exercise the demons from the computer. With this task completed the center was fully operational. The month closed with a total of 38" and a snow depth of 42".

February

      In February, the pattern we saw in January of above average snowfall and mild temperatures began to break down. Storm systems became less frequent and temperatures began to slip toward a normal mid winter regime. The mild conditions with above normal snowfall that dominated the winter until this point had helped to create a very shallow temperature gradient in the mid to lower snowpack. As a consequence the snowpack was relatively homogenous, with little evidence of deep instabilities except in isolated pockets near and above treeline. However, the top 20-30 cm of snow began to recrystallize as a strong temperature gradient developed in the upper snowpack. The deterioration of the snow was especially apparent on Northerly aspects. During the first week of February, a couple of systems moved through the La Sals with a total of 8" of snowfall. It wasn't till the 14th before the next system moved through with 3" of snow and temperatures remained cold. Another system visited the La Sals from the 18th thru 21st with a snowfall total of 5". The temperature gradient in the upper snowpack was unaffected by the infrequent shallow snowfalls and any new snow quickly metamorphosed into faceted crystals. A small system moved through on the 23rd which left behind 3" of low density snow on top of 20-30 cm of well developed faulted crystals. The "reconstituted powder" made for good skiing during the month of February with the threat of avalanches confined to isolated wind slabs at the upper elevation or loose sloughs on steep protected northerly aspects near treeline. However, the stage was set for a major avalanche cycle and now all that was needed was a significant load. I didn't have to wait long. The only major storm in February moved in on the evening of the 26th and continued till March 1st. This scenario resulted in the largest avalanche cycle for the La Sals this winter. Widespread avalanching on most of the northerly slide paths above treeline occurred early during the storm cycle. The sub alpine and some of the south facing alpine slopes released as the storm came to a close on March 1st. However, all the observed slides were confined to the mid and upper snowpack with no deep slab releases noted. As luck would have it, the storm coincided with the weekend when the county road crews are off. This effectively shut down the Geyser Pass road which kept everyone but the most determined and better educated skiers out of harms way. The month had started out at 125% of normal but the lack of any significant snowfall during February saw snow totals fall quickly to average levels by month's end. February closed with a snowfall total of 31" and a 54" snow depth at the snowtel site near the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

March

      March opened with 11" of 5% density snow on the 1st at 9,600 ft., with 17" at the higher elevations, a real treat for the La Sals. Avalanche activity moderated shortly after this system moved out of the area and winter seemed to go out with a whimper and spring came on with a vengeance. After this first initial snow the precipitation faucet was turned down to a trickle. There were only three storms recorded during March, with 3" of snow on the 4th and 4" on the 24th and 29th. The highest peak gust for the winter season of 98 mph was recorded on the 24th , although this system wasn' t much of a snow producer. Some shallow slab avalanche activity was noted along ridge tops following these storms due to windloading. The snow depth peaked a month earlier than average with 60"on the 1st and rapidly declined to well below normal as balmy weather settled in for the rest of March. The La Sals went from mid winter to spring almost over night, especially at the lower elevations. Above treeline temperatures remained cool so the threat of isolated wind slabs avalanches continued through a good portion of the month. Below treeline things were very different, temperatures warmed into forties and fifties during the day and at times would remain above freezing over night. The snow corned up rather quickly, with wet releases becoming the primary hazard thru most of the month. During March I saw the snow totals continue their downward trend with a snowfall total of 22" for month and a base of 23".

April

      The first week of April saw winter trying to make a comeback as a winter like system stalled out over the four corners region. The La Sals received over 3" of water and 24" plus of snow from the first through the eighth. The system came in warm which helped the snow bond to the old snow surface but a number of weak layers in the new snow kept the hazard at high during this cycle. A few large naturals [Class 3] were noted in the alpine regions but overall not much activity was recorded given the amount of snow that was received. As the storm cleared, spring triumphantly returned to the La Sal mountains, although a little cooler than what we saw in March. The last major snow event was on the 24th with 9" recorded at Geyser Pass Trailhead. The month of April closed with a total of 36" of snowfall and a snow depth of 16". The La Sals with 5.5" of water are 80% of normal [6.9 "] for snow water equivalent for the season.

      The La Sal Avalanche Forecast Center has undergone a number of changes in the past few years and this year was no exception. Last year the center operated on a part-time basis with less than desirable results. The center was able to issue advisories but with a noticeable decline in other areas such as maintaining records, public education, and training. With this in mind, a decision to operate the center on a full-time basis was made in order to maintain the center at a viable level. After reviewing the program it was determined that a full-time forecaster was needed at a minimum. A part-time forecaster was deemed too expensive and the center would need to rely on volunteers to assist with field work. This is a workable solution to a difficult budget problem.

      With the threat of future funding cutbacks lurking on the horizon, the future of the La Sal Avalanche Forecast Center may be uncertain in the long run. However, the one thing that is certain is the need for the center will only increase. Moab has become a desirable place to relocate with all of the recreational opportunities available as well as a relief valve for the backcountry skiers of the Wasatch looking for a degree of solitude that can no longer be achieved around the megalopolis of Salt Lake City. Many of the people that move to Moab are from skiing climes and want to continue participating in winter recreation. They naturally look to the La Sals for winter sports, many of whom are avid skiers that want to push themselves as well as the limits. These people will need and expect reliable forecasts for more than just the limited area surrounding Gold Basin. Another trend that is starting to apply pressure to the entire range is the increased use of snowmobiles by the locals to gain access to the backcountry. As this trend grows like it has elsewhere, it will only increase the need for the center's continued funding. With the population of backcountry skiers growing by leaps and bounds in the Salt Lake region, the demand for backcountry skiing will only increase in the La Sals due to its close proximity to Salt Lake City. The added recognition from the 2002 Winter Olympic Games will further increase the pressure on the Wasatch in the short term as well as the long term as people recognize the quality of life that Salt Lake City has to offer. This population surge will only increase the need for winter recreation in the La Sals.