Annual Reports of the L.S.A.F.C:

1992-3 ~ 1993-4 ~ 1994-5 ~ 1995-6 ~ 1996-7 ~ 1997-8 ~ 1998-9 ~ 1999-00 ~ 2000-01

1997-8 SEASON:

      Introduction

      My first season as the full-time LaSal Avalanche Forecaster began on November 10, 1997. This was a significant change from the past where the forecasters were often brought on part-time, late in the season or without a guarantee of funding for the entire winter. This improvement would not have happened if not for the herculean and lengthy efforts of the local community, including previous LaSal Avalanche Forecasters--particularly Brian Murray and Dave Medara, the Friends of the LaSal Avalanche Forecast Center, Bruce Tremper at the Utah Avalanche Forecast Center, Glen Casamassa, Gary Reynolds and all the other Forest Service folks. Thanks for all your efforts, past, present and future!
      There's a great passage from Through the Looking Glass where Alice must run very long and very fast for a very long time just to stay in one place. This pretty much describes my first season on the job--finding the "lay of the land", getting the Center up and running, familiarizing myself with the mountains and learning new software.

      Season Goals

      The Lasal Avalanche Forecast Center's roller-coaster past has forced each new Forecaster to reinvent the wheel at each changeover. This has often led to inadequate communication with the community and Forest Service--involvement that would have helped to smooth the track, bulid support for the program and eliminate stress.
      Additionally, due to steeper learning curves, current backcountry user groups--like snowboarders and snowmobilers--are unaware of avalanche danger and therefore less inclined to seek out avalanche information than groups such as skiers have been in the past. We need a new, more aggressive plan.
      I have attempted to correct some of the glaring problems.
      Several long-term projects were identified as important to developing a strong, consistent program for the Forecast Center to fulfill it's charter of providing current backcountry avalanche condition advisories, an accurate mountain weather forecast and avalanche education to the public.

      I. Increasing and improving:
           A. Available snow observations;
           B. Available weather data;
           C. Dissemination of avalanche and winter recreation information;
      II. Expanding services to the other avalanche-prone areas of the Manti- LaSal Forest, specifically: Wasatch Plateau and the Abajos;
      III. Improving relations between the LSAFC, the community and the Forest Service;
      IV. Streamlining the office operations of the LSAFC.

      Season Accomplishments

      The following steps were taken to achieve these targets:

      I.A. Increasing and improving available snow observations:
           1. The Friends of the LSAFC sponsored a session with Dan Judd to correct ongoing problems with the weather telemetry equipment and to train the Forecaster;
           2. A paid-observer program was organized for next season to bolster the weak community input of the past.

      I.B. Increasing and improving available weather data;
           1. A permanent remote-sensing precipitation site was identified near Geyser Pass, which will provide a more accurate picture of snow accumulations in the future;
           2. Grounding rods were added to the lightning grid on Pre-Laurel peak, and 2 lightning diffusers were ordered for addition to the lightning rod. The grid octopus still needs to be expanded;
           3. A commitment was obtained from the CNHA volunteer crew to construct a permanent storage bunker and mounting platform for the Pre-Laurel weather site this summer. This should improve system reliability and reduce the destruction factor inherent in hauling sensitive and delicate weather telemetry equipment up and down the mountain in a backpack. It will also provide protection from theft and vandalism to the equipment during the summer season and improve the accuracy of the data through a more solid and plumb mounting tower with better grounding;
           4. A snow transponder is scheduled to be added to the LaSal Mountain SNOTEL site in June for improved interval snow totals;
           5. The BLM provided a new datalogger to replace the faulty, fussy one on Pre-Laurel Peak. Aging and unreliable batteries were replaced at both sites;
           6. Working through the Friends of the LSAFC, we were able to obtain a donation of Internet service for the season, effectively saving approximately $1500 that was spent last year for the ISP, associated long-distance phone connections and subscription weather services;

      I.C. Improving dissemination of avalanche and winter recreation information;
           1. A web-page was constructed and uploaded including the current advisory, hazard rating explanation, annual reports of the LSAFC, an avalanche tutorial and links to other sites, including appropriate weather products (www.avalanche.org/~lsafc). Future additions to the site will include avalanche maps for the forest, a "sign-in box" for field observer comments, the LSAFC Newsletter and weather data from the remote sites;
           2. All avalanche and winter recreation material at the MIC was consolidated and relocated to a display in the recreation shelves. Map and book inventory was increased and supplemented with free Forest Service information, including: avalanche awareness and ski trail brochures, a posting of the current avalanche and weather advisory, display board with 259-SNOW stickers and backcountry hut system information.
           I also reviewed a new avalanche book selection for CNHA to offer through the MIC.
           Similar arrangements were made at the LaSal Mountain Information Center in Old LaSal.
           3. To provide a predictable, yet flexible framework for avalanche education, I established "Avalanche Awareness Week" during the last week of January. Patterned after a similar event in the Wasatch, the program provides an avalanche awareness slide show, 2-day basic avalanche course, beacon drills, avalanche programming on the local television station, a coffee social and a basic avalanche course. Additional presentations were made to the Price Ski and Snowmobile Clubs, the Grand, Carbon and San Juan County SAR Teams, Moab Winter Rescue Team, snowshoeing clinics, Grand County high school projects and an outdoor program.
           4. Avalanche-related articles were published in local and national publications like the Salt Lake Tribune, Moab Happenings, Moab Times Independent, Price Sun-Advocate, Emory County Progress.
           An ongoing Avalanche Column proposal was made to Snowmobile Magazine.

      II. Expanding services to the other avalanche-prone areas of the Manti-LaSal Forest, specifically: Manti-Top and the Abajos;
           A. A digitized GIS mapping project was begun for all areas of the Manti-Lasal Forest identifying current and potential avalanche terrain overlaid with recreational use areas. These maps are intended to help forest managers and SAR Teams identify potential problem areas, as well as to create perceived value in the LSAFC. As a side benefit, they are a useful product for the general public;
           B. Avalanche Awareness presentations to the public and groups like County Search and Rescue were made out of the Moab area. Locations included: Mt. Peale Lodge in Old LaSal, Monticello Ambulance Shed, Price SAR building and old Reeves school.

      III. Improving relations between the LSAFC, the community and the Forest Service:
           A. "Firewood Day and Camp-out" was organized to remove deadfall timber from the Geyser Pass Area, then camp-out, eat a dutch-oven dinner, rub elbows with Utah Jazz players and listen to campfire musicians and cowboy poetry. The next day includes guided hiking and biking in the National Forest and an interpretive presentation on Navajo culture. This project provides firewood to needy senior citizens and Navajos, improves winter recreation in the most popular use area of the LaSal Mountains and provides a fun social event for Forest Service personnel. Participants include the US Forest Service, LaSal Avalanche Forecast Center, the Utah Jazz, a local "at-risk" youth program, local scout troops, the Utah Navajo Tribe and interested locals.
           B. Automatic road counters were requested and scheduled for summer installation at the Geyser Pass and LaSal Pass/Dark Canyon Lake Trail Heads. A trailhead counter installed for summer usage at the Peavine Trail Head in the Abajos was identified for reinstallation at the Geyser Pass Trail Head during the 1998-9 season to monitor winter recreation. The data from these counters should establish much higher use than has previously been recognized, providing justification for continued funding of winter recreation services (avalanche forecast center, road maintenance, information dissemination, etc,);
           C. A weatherproof sticker was printed by the Friends of the LSAFC to distribute as a "Thank You" gesture to folks who donate assistance to the Center;
           D. Dave Medara's newletter was reincarnated to help keep interested parties informed about the activities of the LSAFC;
           E. The Forest Service agreed to keep the Forecaster employed intermittently over the summer to work on various projects;

      IV. Streamlining the operations of the LSAFC:
           A. Ten years of hard-copy files and computer hard-drive files were organized and cleaned out. This improves access to historical and operational information, facilitates change-over of forecasters, and radically improves the previously temperamental performance of the computer. Outdated and superfluous software was eliminated and the useful files reassociated. Forecast Center seasonal set-up requirements were documented and photographed as necessary to improve learning curve of new forecasters. Documentation was obtained for the available software;
           B. Current versions and updates of Norton Anti-Virus and Arcview were installed, an FTP utility was installed to manage the web-site, a macro script was installed to facilitate SNOTEL data retrieval and cataloguing.
           The hard-drive was cleaned up and reconfigured to resolve the obnoxious and disruptive seize-ups. An attempt was made to upgrade the computer system to improve speed and performance. Unfortunately, despite generous hardware contributions from the BLM, the system requires so many card and software upgrades that it is more sensible to acquire a new machine. An unsuccessful attempt was made to find a donor. The Friends of the LSAFC have agreed to fund the purchase.
           C. A five-year plan was drafted to provide direction and goals for the Center.

      Snow and Avalanche Conditions

OCTOBER

      Several substantial storms in October left us pockets of rotten snow at higher elevations anywhere that the wind and sun didn't strip it away. This layer created moderate to considerable instability as snow began to accumulate later in the season, mostly on steep, wind-affected areas near treeline.

NOVEMBER

      The month was dryer than the wet summer and fall predicted, with skiing conditions consistently thin and rife with land-mines. Occasional turns could be found by sticking to very low angle, grassy slopes with speedy recrystallized snow, but most recreationists wisely played it safe and stayed on the well-covered roads and trails. The month's one good storm ended on the 27th and brought us 8" of 7-9% snow at the GPTH with very little associated instability.

DECEMBER

      During the first week of December, we received 3" of snow and I began to see the season's first slab releases. These were on wind-loaded and rotten northerly aspects and were very pockety in nature. It appeared that sluffing snow and graupel from steep rock bands above had loaded these areas and played a factor in magnifying the stress of what seemed to be a very small increase in snowpack weight. So much for the "6"-and-wind" rule; like the man--Ron Perla--said, "the only rule of thumb is that there are no rules of thumb".
      A big storm that ended on the 9th brought us 20.5" of snow and allowed backcountry skiing to begin in earnest. This storm was associated with widespread avalanche activity that included areas not ordinarily given to avalanching, like the Corkscrew Glades. Not surprisingly, big facets in the old snow were to blame and many of the slides ran full path and/or to the ground.
      8" fell in time for the Christmas holidays, but a split jetstream weather pattern kept the month a little dry.

JANUARY

      Long periods between snowfalls allowed the snowpack to recrystallize and rot, resulting in unsupportable base conditions in many areas. Good turning could be found by the determined, but most locals abdicated, leaving the skiing to less picky out-of-towners.
      The month showed weather patterns typical for this area. The storms that pounded the Wasatch mountains slid just north of us, leaving small snow accumulations in their wake. The month's biggest snowfall came on the 5th, bringing us 8" of light snow which triggered extensive avalanche activity during the storm. By the next day it was all over, with no sensitive pockets to be found. The weakness was depth hoar, with many of these slides running to the ground.

FEBRUARY

      The month came in wet, with one small storm after another leaving us 2 or 3 inches at a time for a total accumulation of 10" by the end of the first week of February. The warm SW flow responsible for the precipitation brought the snow in heavy and out light, but the short break between impulses--along with our usual winds--allowed hard wind slab to form on top of light density new snow. The gradual snow accumulation meant that these slabs did not release naturally but hung in place, waiting for a hapless trigger to wander by. This cycle brought us our most devious and dangerous avalanche conditions of the season, but the only observed or reported avalanches were triggered (quite easily) by the Forecaster.
      This stormy pattern continued throughout the month. Avalanche hazard seldom dropped below considerable as the monthly snowfall total inched higher and the customary LaSal winds worked their sorcery. On the 14th, the weak snowpack began to fail, leaving crown fractures that stretched across the entire Middle Cirque of Gold Basin as well as many other smaller slides. The weaknesses were buried light density snow and large facets. Lousy weather guaranteed that noone was in harm's way.
      The month's largest single storm left us 10" on the 23rd and triggered a few large natural avalanches that were difficult to spot after the clouds lifted and winds died--seemingly the rule rather than the exception, here.
      The total monthly snowfall reached 38" before the sun broke through on the 28th--finally climbing high enough into the sky to bring heat to the frigid desert air for the first time this season.

MARCH

      March came in like a lamb. 3 days of spectacular, warm sun was greatly appreciated by the bold and hardy few who skipped the back-yard barbecue to get some turns and a ski tan. Mountain temperatures climbed above freezing, settling and soothing our wretched snowpack, but crusting all exposed slopes.
      Snow continued to accumulate, with 2" on the 3rd, and another 8" on the 6th pushing the corn-snow season back. The temperatures began to climb around the 10th, and the arrival of 70 degrees in the valley triggered the annual Moab invasion of sun-seekers.
      Just as spring-conditions seemed well-established, an unforeseen freak storm on the 17th brought 18" of cold, light density snow to the Geyser Pass Trail Head. Falling on a warm old-snow surface, the new snow stuck like a limpet on a smooth rock. No slab avalanching was observed during or shortly after the storm, but the sneaky, steep temperature gradient quickly eroded the bond. The hazard climbed to considerable on the 19th and a few short-running natural soft slab releases were seen.
      A storm cycle that began on the 26th wrecked the developing corn-snow conditions with 13" of new snow that accumulated a little at a time. Warm temperatures guaranteed that shady, high evergreens were the only escape from sticky glop and "Jack LaLane" touring conditions ("...And now, 15 lb. weighted-leg lifts--left, right, left, right...).
      The month went out like a lion.

APRIL

      Cold temperatures and a 16" fluffy dump heralded the start of April. This was good news for the snowpack, which had become soggy and wet during mid-March's warm sunny weather. Weak faceted crystals persisted near the ground, however, giving pause to those considering steep descents.
      As the annual piggy-bank reached empty and the Center closed down for the season on April 6, spring snow conditions seemed well-established. Late spring snow continues to accumulate, however, ensuring excellent coverage and skiing conditions well into May and probably later.

      There were no avalanche-related injuries or fatalities in the LaSal Mountains during the 1997-8 season. A snowmobiler was killed in an avalanche on the Wasatch Plateau section of the Manti-LaSal National Forest near Price, however (see accident description in the UAFC annual report).

      Forecaster Perspective and Comments

      The backbone of all Avalanche Forecast Center programs is data collection. Avalanche behavior is not reduceable to a formula--the more information you have, the more accurate your predictions. In most programs, data comes from many sources: ski resort facilities and observations, remote weather telemetry, the National Weather Service, official Forecaster observations and--perhaps most importantly--field observations from local observers. Lacking many of these sources in the LaSals, the latter becomes incredibly critical.
      I've been a bit baffled by the response of the local backcountry population to the program. On the one hand, the community has fought long and hard to keep the program in existence, but on the other hand, there is an abject unwillingness to provide the simplest type of support: field observations. Despite frequent requests for field observations, I have been unable to convince local backcountry users to participate. There is either a failure to grasp the importance of observations or a perception that one person (me) should be able to cover the entire mountain range single-handedly and to a high degree of accuracy.
      The LaSals possess a complex snowpack and weather system, difficult access, scant data availability and extreme variations of altitude and exposure.
      I need help!

(Please contact the LSAFC for a hard-copy of the complete annual report)