LaChapelle, E. R., 1966. Avalanche Forecasting--a Modern Synthesis. Proc. of Davos
Symposium (as above). IASH Publ. No. 69, p. 350-356. [Introduces distinction between
meteorological and structural forecasts and relation to climate. Introduces distinction
between hard and soft slabs, direct and climax avalanches.]
Roch, A., 1966. Les declenchement d'avalanches. Proc. of Davos Syncposium (as
above). IASH Publ. No. 69, p. 182-195. [Formal development of stability index as first
expressed in 1955.]
Shcherbakov, M. P., 1966. Method of Predicting Avalanche Danger from Snowfall
Intensity in the Tien-Shan. USDA Forest Service, Alta Avalanche Study Center Translation
No. 10, 1969, 23 p. (original paper in Russian.) [Predicts new-snow avalanches by
combining Roch stability index with snowfall intensity.]
Bongard, M., 1970. Pattern Recognition. Spartan Books, New York and Washington, 253
p. [An early classic in this field. Bongard was working on avalanche forecasting by
pattern recognition at the time of his early death.]
Gardner, N. C., and A. Judson, 1970. Artillery control of avalanches along mountain
highways. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Exp. Station Research Paper
RM-61, 26 p. [Extension of storm plot concept and development of control curve.]
LaChapelle, E. R., 1970. Principles of Avalanche Forecasting. In: Gold, L. W. and
G. P. Williams, eds., Ice Engineering and Avalanche Forecasting and Control. NRC of
Canada, Assoc. Comm. On Geotechnical Research, Tech. Memor. No. 98, p. 106-113.
[Distinguishes conventional, statistical and combined approaches to forecasting. Defines
forecasting time scales.]
Obled, C., 1970. Vers une prevision numerique des risques d'avalanches. Contract
Report D.G.R.S.T. 69/09/094, Comite d'Etudes et de Documentation Nivologiques et
Glaciares. 45 p. [Introduces index method for meteorological data to identify avalanche
days, using precipitation and snow settlement.]
Perla, R.I., 1970. On Contributory Factors in Avalanche Hazard Evaluation. Canadian
Geotechnical Journal, Vol. 7, No. 4, p 414-419. [Hazard probability deduced from scatter
diagrams of hazard vs. contributory factors, precip. and wind direction dominating.]
Schleiss, V. G. and W. E. Schleiss, 1970. Avalanche Hazard Evaluation and Forecast,
Rogers Pass, Glacier National Park. NRC of Canada Tech. Memor. No. 98 (see LaChapelle,
1970, above), p 115-122. [Explicitly combines meteorological and structural methods with
shear tests of new snow stability.]
Bois, P. and C. Obled, 1972. Analyse des donnees nivoclimatologiques en vue de la
prevision des avalanches. Joint internal reports, EISLF & Institut National
Polytechnique de Grenoble, 71 p. [Sorts avalanche from nonavalanche days by DFA using 17
sorted snow and weather variables, notes avalanche data limitations.]
Brown, C. B., R. J. Evans and E. R. LaChapelle, 1972. Slab Avalanching and the
State of Stress in Fallen Snow. J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 77, p. 4570-4580. [Extends Roch and
Jaccard concept of slab stress to account for incremental loading of accreting slab.
Demonstrates slabs must be wider than long to fall.]
Judson, A. and B. J. Erickson, 1973. Predicting Avalanche Intensity from Weather
Data: A Statistical Analysis. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest & Range Exp.
Station Research Paper RM-112, 12 p. [Simple storm index and DFA model predicts avalanche
occur rence from weather parameters; precipitation and wind dominate.]
(Shoda, M.) 1973. Avalanche Classification. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, Vol.
18, No. 4, p. 391-402. [Introduction of Shoda Diagram illustrating interrelation of
meteorology, snow structure and terrain.]
Bovis, M. J., 1974. Statistical Analysis. Chapt. 6 in: Inst. of Arctic & Alpine
Res., U. of Colorado, Occas. Paper 13, p. 71-94. [Forecasting by DFA. Avalanche occurrence
stratified by size, type and mode of release.]
Bois, P., C. Obled and W. Good, 1974. Multivariate Data Analysis as a Tool for
Day-by-day Avalanche Forecast. Proc. of Symp. on Snow Mechanics, Grindlewald, Switzerland,
IAHS Publ. No. 114, p. 391-403. [Uses DFA with input variables elaborated according to
physical relation to avalanche formation. Operational procedures for forecasting defined.]
Grakovich, S. S., 1974. On the utilization of the method of image discrimination
for estimating avalanche situations from complex meteorological information. (paper in
Russian) In: Tushinsky, G. K. and Y. S. Troshkina, eds. Snow Avalanches--Forecasting and
Protection. Moscow University. [Development of pattern recognition techniques for dealing
with meteorology of avalanche formation.]
LaChapelle, E. R., 1974. Avalanche Forecasting. Chapt. 4 in: Inst. of Arctic &
Alpine Res., U. of Colorado, Occas. Report 13, p. 41-55. [Describes combined conventional
methods and psychological factors.]
Perla, R. I. amd M. Martinelli, Jr., 1976. Avalanche Handbook. USDA Forest Service,
Agriculture Handbook No. 489, 238 p.
[Updated successor to Handbook No. 194. Elaboration of meteorological and structural
factors influencing avalanche formation.]
Reanier, F. W., 1976. Central Avalanche Hazard Forecasting. Paper read at Joint
Scientific Meeting on Mountain Meteorology and Biometeorology, Interlaken, Switzerland,
June 10-14, 1976. [Introduces quantitative precipitation forecasting and lays basis for
true avalanche forecasting instead of evaluation.]
Salway, A. A., 1976. Statistical Estimation and Prediction of Avalanche Activity
from Meteorological Data for the Rogers Pass Area of British Columbia. PhD. thesis,
Faculty of Forestry, U. of British Columbia, 118 p. [Introduces time series statistics and
improves avalanche data quanitification by using run-out distance.]
Bovis, M. J., 1977. Statistical Forecasting of Snow Avalanches, San Juan Mountains,
Southern Colorado, USA. J. of Glaciology, Vol. 18, No. 78., p. 87-99. [Stratification of
data including avalanche days using DFA.]
Fohn, P., W. Good, P. Bois and C. Obled, 1977. Evaluation and Comparison of
Conventional and Statistical Methods of Forecasting Avalanche Hazard. J. of Glaciology,
Vol. 19, No. 81,
p. 375-387. [Overview of different forecasting methods and comparison of statistical
methods by scoring performances with actual data.]
Wilson, N., 1977. Everything You
Wanted to Know about Snow. Mariah, winter issue 1977, p. 26-28, 82-84, 104-106.
[Introduces practical use of inductive logic in hazard evaluation.]
LaChapelle, E. R., S. A. Ferguson, R. T. Marriott, M. B. Moore, F. W. Reanier, E.
M. Sackett, and P. L. Taylor, 1978. Central Avalanche Hazard Forecasting--Summary of
Scientific Investigations. Washington State Transportation Department Res. Report 23.4,
Olympia, 203 p. [Structural, meteorological and statistical methods reviewed, decision
algorithm introduced, fundamentals of central forecasting definedl
LaChapelle, E. R., 1980. The
Fundamental Processes in Conventional Avalanche Forecasting. J. of Glaciology, Vol. 26, No. 94,
p. 75-84. [Basic theory of non-statistical methods established in terms of
information theory, pattern recognition and inductive logic. ]
Obled, C. amd W. Good, 1980. Recent
Development of Avalanche Forecasting by Discriminant Analysis Techniques: A Methodological
Review and some Applications to the Parsenn Area (Davos, Switzerland). J. of Glaciology,
Vol. 25, No. 92., p. 315-345. [DFA methods reviewed and nearest
neighbor concept introduced.]
Rink, C. E., 1982. Praxisnahe
M6dell zur Optimierung der Lawinenvorhersage am Beispiel des Arlberggebietes. PhD
dissertation, Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, U. of Cologne, 102 p. [Pattern recognition of snow profiles
combined with practical computer use for real-time forecasting.]
Buser, O., 1983. Avalanche
Forecast with the Method of Nearest Neighbors: an Interactive Approach. Cold Regions
Science and Technology, Vol. 8, p. 155-163. [Statistical
methods improved by reference to like weather and avalanche patterns in database.]
Buser, O. and W. Good, 1984. Avalanche
Forecast: Experience Using Nearest Neighbors. Proc. Int. Snow Science Workshop, Aspen,
Colorado. [Nearest neighbor method tested against three years of operation and critical
levels established.]
Ferguson, S. A., 1984. The Role
of Snowpack Structure in Avalanching. PhD. dissertation, Geophysics Program, U. of
Washington, Seattle, 150 p. [Classification
of snow structure by cluster analysis to sort stable from unstable snow.]
