M a n a g e m e n t

a n d

A n a l y s i s

o f

S n o w,

A v a l a n c h e

a n d

C l i m a t e

D a t a

PREDICTED AVALANCHEHAZARDAREAS(FICTIVEBULLETIN)

Hazard Indication

• high hazard
• above and around
  2000 meters
• steep slopes
• aspects fromNW to E

very dangerous

dangerous

critical

less critical

very low risk

Hazard Indication

• considerable hazard
• above and around
  2000 meters
• steep slopes
• all aspects

very dangerous

dangerous

critical

less critical

very low risk

1250

1000

750

500

250

0

Fig 5: Example of a map, showing the predicted danger of avalanche release

1250

1000

750

500

250

0

Fig. 6:Map of predicted danger: bulletin march 23, 1996 with registered avalanches

of the same day

tensely during the winter 1996/97 toimprove the under-To improve the country-wide Avalanche Warning Service,
layingmodelandit'sreliability;statisticaluncertaintySFISAR works since a long time on different modules such
analysis (e.g. Monte Carlo Simulation) will be of great im-as snow cover modeling (Fierz et al. 1996), improvements
portance. So far, the weight factors are based on a simple aoftheexpertsystemsforavalanche warning (Schweizer
priori multiplicative model, which hasto be validated tho-and Föhn 1996),operational databases, regional bulletins
roughlyunderfieldconditions,takingintoaccounttheandvalidationofthehazardlevels(Bolognesi1996).
actualhazardsituationobserved inthe field.In other words:LAWIPROG isbut a completion to thisresearch program
it is still a long way to go until such maps may be handedwhich isdevotedtothe improvementofthe operational
to the public and until their distribution over internet e.g.avalanche warning and prophylaxis.
could be encouraged.

5