S n o w

C o v e r

S t a b i l i t y,

A v a l a n c h e

I n i t ia t i o n

a n d

F o r e c a s t i n g

Fig. 2Spatial probability distribution of exceedinga threshhold value of stress.

P(|s|>s_thr ).It is clearly seen that the geometry of surface
is amasterfactorthat determines potentially dangerous
zones.
Fig. 3 represents a distribution of stress at two arbitrar-
ilychoosenpoints-x=550,y=300(toppanel)and
x=200,y=200. As far as the slope is steeper near first point,
the distribution of stress here has a tail much longer than
distribution of stress nearsecond point.

REFERENCES

Novo jilo vV.V.,1962.T heoryofthinshells.Leningrad,
"Sudpromgis", ( in Russian )

G.A. Korn, T.M. Korn, 1968. Mathematical Handbook for scien-
tists and engineers. McGraw-Hill Book Company.

Nefed'evV.O.,B ozhinsk yA .N.,19 89.B alanceofThin
Weightable Elastic Shell on the Hard Base.Communication of
the Joint Institute of Nuclear Research. Dubna.

Xing Cai and Hans P. Langtangen, 1994. AB-Spline Package in
C++.WorldWideWebdocument:DiffpackReportSeries,
SIN TEF,Universityo fO slo,1 99 4.U RL:http://

www.oslo.sintef.no/diffpack/reports

William H. Press, Saul A. Teukolsky, William T. Vetterling and
BrianP.Flannery,1992.NumericalRecipesinC:TheArtof
Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press.

Fig. 3 Probability of stress at the point x=550 m, y=300 m (upper
panel) and x=200 m, y=200m (lower panel).

77