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ABSTRACT

The safety of people in a winter, backcountry mountain
environment is presented in terms of margins of security
and margins of survival. The elements of a security deter-
mination are expanded on assessments of snow stability,
hazard, andrisk. Processesof reasoningby mountainguides
in light of many uncer tainties ar e outlined. Risk
management is treatedin terms of human psychology. Fi-
nally, tools affecting margins of survival are put into con-
text with recent results of risk homeostasis theory.

INTRODUCTION

A mountain guide is "one who shows the way...by reason
of...greater experiencewith the course to be pursued". The
profession of guiding is both an art and a science. The
question - vigorously debated at times - is how much is
art, andhow muchis science. The challenge,for practicing
guides, is to merge elements of art and of science in their
work.
In exercising one's duties as a guide, the overarching
consideration is the safety and enjoyment of the client(s).
This paper presents a conceptual framework for safety
determinations by guides on behalf of clients. Contribu-
tions from snow science are indicated, and scope for fur-
ther research is presented, in the spirit of merging theory
and practice.
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SITUATIONAL SAFETY, SECURITY AND SURVIVAL

Safety is freedom from danger, risk or injury. Mountain
guides consider safety in a situational context. The act of
guiding consists of linking a sequenceof dangerous situa-
tions which deliver enjoyment to the client(s). Considera-
tion of safety for each situation necessitates a sequenceof
cognitive processes: the perception of danger attendantto
the situation, the assessment of hazard in light of uncer-
tainties, and the management of risk by free choice. Let us
call this cognitive sequence the security determination.
Guides navigate through dangerous situations with the
security determination as a compass.
Perceptionof danger is not exact, nor are cognitiveproc-
esses precise. The security determination for any situation
is fraught with uncertainties. It does not necessarily
correspondto the anticipatedsafety of the situation, which
is why an 'accident' could occur. In the event of a mishap,
further survival measures come into play. These may in-
fluence overall safety, dependingon outcomes.
The anticipated safety margin is dependenton the mar-
gin of security that is determined and the anticipated
margin of survival that would arise with a mishap:

Anticipated Margin of Safety = Margin of Security x An-
ticipated Margin of Survival.
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