Extrapolating Study Plot Data

Historically, many avalanche forecasting operations for ski areas and mountain highways have involved the collection of data from specific study plots.  These data are then extrapolated to the surrounding terrain on the basis of experience and a fundamental understanding of weather, snow, and avalanches.  However, little work has been done to try to objectively extrapolate study plot data or to evaluate the uncertainties inherent in that process.

The Forest Service National Avalanche Center is working with Chris Landry, a graduate student in the Department of Earth Sciences at Montana State University, to examine the feasibility of objectively extrapolating study plot data from multiple sites in the Bridger Range during the 2000/2001 and 2001/2002 seasons.  Data will be collected with the Quantified Loaded Column Test, extrapolated over the surrounding avalanche terrain, and compared to actual avalanche activity.  This work will form the basis of Chris' MS thesis.