We observed frequent shooting cracks, ongoing heavy snowfall, ongoing heavy SE windloading, and thaw below the variable snow level of 500 - 200 m. This tallies four of the seven key signs of instability, and the shooting cracks and windloading are serious ones.

Our slope test results showed weakness. We easily produced shooting cracks and mini-slabs on switchback tests, and slab test results were in the sensitive #2 range (most of undermined area, clean). Test slopes did not yet release without cutting a lower track, though.

Our block tests also indicated very tender snow. On two of the three tests, the new snow and the facets that formed over last weekend slid off at average shear quality (CAK2Q2, AK3Q2) to the melt-freeze/rime crust at 119 cm as we stepped onto the blocks. This is unusual. Skis usually sink right through such soft surface layers without shearing them effectively, and the slope angle of 37° was relatively low.

All test blocks also fractured below last week's new snow on the melt-freeze/rime crust at 81cm at average shear quality on an ankle flex (RB3Q2, CAK3Q2, AK3Q2), another weak result. All three fractured irregularly on multiple hard jumps on the deep 51 cm melt-freeze/rime crust (RB6Q3, CAK6Q3, AK6Q3), relatively strong results.

We rated the strength as -, the stress as -, the energy as -, and the structure as ~, where + indicates a stronger snopwpack, - weaker, and ~ neutral.

At mid to high elevations, the new snow is loading rapidly in heavy snow showers with SE drifting, stressing the weak layers and forming sensitive soft slabs. If rapid loading continues, an avalanche cycle is likely.

If it tapers off as forecast, settlement may allow the new snow to lose energy and become less sensitive with time, but backcountry travelers should still be cautious and stay off the steeps at mid-elevation and higher. Facets and surface hoar tend to persist as weak layers for weeks unless they get wet.

Though the higher elevation snowpack is stronger at depth, it has more windloading on the same weak near-surface facet layer that that fractured very easily in today's tests and is not trustworthy.

Down below 600m where the new snow is coming in moist, the snow is much less sensitive, but the weak layers at depth remain dry and may respond to stress from the overlying wetter snow by fracturing.

We still have a relatively thin snowpack in the starting zones, but we are nearing having enough snow to produce large slides to lower elevations. The snow volumes at present are still most likely to produce smaller slides that stop above developed areas, but we will continue to monitor conditions closely.