We expected to find lingering weakness in the backcountry snowpack, especially given the hair-trigger instability we saw two days ago and the fresh slab we observed on Snowslide Gulch in Gold Creek this morning. But our observations showed only one of the seven signs of instability, slope tests all indicated strong and low energy snow, and our block tests all had strong results too.

Because some of the weak layers are facets, buried surface hoar, and poor bonds to icy crusts, we believe that it is very likely there are still some weak areas where it would be quite possible to trigger a slab. So we chose our route with care and descended one at a time. On the mainland, where the windloading was much heavier than on Douglas Island, it is likely that the snowpack is far more sensitive.

But we found no instability where we went today. It is likely that the two days since the last big snowfall has allowed the snowpack to adjust to its load and bond quite a bit.

The surface snow turned into sugary early facets when it cleared and cooled last night, creating a potential weak layer for the next snowfall. But the next storm is currently forecast to come in warm enough to drop rain rather than snow to fairly high elevations, so the snowpack may not be loaded much before it wets and settles. It is likely, though, that the first good rain on the preciously dry snowpack will trigger some of the deeper weaknesses and release some slab avalanches.

Volumes are still small enough for large slides to be unlikely to reach lower elevations, but some smaller ones may hit the runouts.

Backcountry travelers should ride with the awareness that tender spots and spatial variability are probable, and not assume that lack of slides is the same as stability. Ride and choose terrain as though you expect slides anywhere that deep layer compaction is absent or minimal.

Both cutback blocks today had identical results (RB5Q3, CAK5Q3) and both non-cutback AK Blocks, one sized for an 85 Kg tester and one for a 105 Kg tester, had the same result of fracturing on multiple hard jumps at less than average shear quality (AK6Q3, AK6Q3). Patrick McCormick photo.