• The best current summary of the status of avalanche programs in Juneau is the web-edited 7.1MB QuickTime movie version of the presentation we prepared recently for the International Conference on Snow Avalanche Mitigation in Iceland and presented at a colloquium at the SLF Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research in Davos, Switzerland.
• There were some very useful exchanges of information and techniques during our trip to Europe and it opened some exciting new possibilities for international collaboration toward solving our urban avalanche problem.
• The Juneau urban advisory program demonstration program we did last year was the only urban avalanche forecast in North America. It was a unique and pioneering nontechnical avalanche advisory geared to a general audience of urban residents.
• Unfortunately, the City and Borough of Juneau (CBJ) Assembly was not willing to fully fund the program itself and the federal and state governments have failed to chip in their shares, so there is no core operational funding to pay staff to continue the program.
• After twelve years of hard work on avalanche issues in our region, we were not willing to give up easily when the Assembly fell short, so in the fall we submitted a proposal that doubled the CBJ on-budget money with funds we lined up, and tripled it when all the associated off-budget in-kind partnerships and donations were tallied in.
• That proposal would have enabled us to operate through the first half of the forecast season, but it depended on CBJ commitments to begin early enough in the season to meet the professional standard of care and to come through with funding for the remainder of the season using state and federal or CBJ money.
• We put in five weeks of unpaid fulltime work in the summer and fall to help the CBJ raise state and federal funds. We met with Governor Palin's budget people and our federal Congressional delegation's Juneau staff, provided detailed information on our website, and developed and presented our statewide avalanche program budget presentation (0.3 MB PDF download).
• Ultimately the CBJ Assembly decided not to fund the program. We believe this is the wrong decision but that is what they have chosen.
• There were some misleading statements in the media that need to be corrected.
• We were very definitely not seeking a budget increase. In fact the forecasting budget estimates by us and by others over the years have been very consistent, and we actually made efficient use of donations and partnerships to make a 17% CUT in the weekly cost to the CBJ, quite the opposite of an increase!
• Some also suggested we were asking for too much. Again, our budgets were consistent with those developed by others over the years, and were figured at nonprofit chargeout rates a full third below those commonly charged for work in our field. The basic fact is that we could have saved lives for the cost of a $5.20 burger per resident per year, in a city that routinely spends far larger sums on what can only be considered very nice but thoroughly nonessential services.
• The CBJ's budget was completely unrealistic. Even if we could cover the overhead from half of their $50,000, which is very doubtful, it would leave only $1,042 per month pay for each of the four staffers, far too little to live on for fulltime jobs in Juneau.
• The Juneau Empire suggested that we should work out a compromise budget with the City. This suggestion reveals a profound ignorance, an assumption that we were asking an inflated price, when in fact as a nonprofit whose goal is to serve the community, we were already asking for the bare minimum necessary to do the job. There was nothing extra in the budget to trim or to compromise any further with.

• The Avalanche Center is not about to go away. We are still very much here. Our education programs continue to offer high-quality courses in the area, and our links and resources pages continue to hold more online avalanche education resources than any other source.
• We will be working for state and federal forecast funding this winter, and stand ready to resume forecasting whenever funding becomes available.
• We are preparing for forecast resumption by training our staff, getting gear ready, and finishing research projects on forecasting and rescue-related projects.
• But we are not doing forecasting fieldwork and cannot provide forecasts this season. We are sorry but the community has made the choice to not fund this service and our staff cannot do their jobs for free any more than you can.

Avalanche Forecast Credibility

In the absence of community funding for a professional-quality avalanche forecast, some well-intentioned individuals and groups have proposed alternate forecasts.

In evaluating the credibility of an avalanche forecast, here are the questions you should ask. If the answers are no, the forecast fails to meet the established professional standards and while some of the information may still be useful the forecast must be given low credibility:

• Are the forecasters monitoring the snowpack for the whole season, starting early in November, so deep weak layers and the evolution of the snowpack are being properly tracked and documented?
• Are forecasters in the field daily?
• Are test areas adjacent to or in the starting zones being forecasted visited and tested at least weekly?
• Are other test areas at starting zone elevations being visited and tested at least three times weekly?
• Are field and recording practices in accord with the American Avalanche Association “SWAG” observations guidelines?
• Is the forecast issued daily and updated more frequently when conditions change?
• Have all the forecasters taken or are they instructors for Level 1 and 2 avalanche courses meeting American Avalanche Association (AAA) guidelines, plus the AAA AvPro professionals’ course?
• Are all the forecasters Professional Members of the AAA, having qualified with a minimum of four year’s professional-level experience, and does the lead forecaster have a minimum of ten years of mentored professional-level experience under the same AAA criteria?
• Is the lead forecaster based here in Juneau where they can make daily observations firsthand?
• Do the forecasters have a track record of collaborating with the other centers in the National Avalanche Center network and participating in their training and meetings?
• Do the forecasters have a track record of being active in continuing education like the International Snow Science Workshops and the AAA continuing education seminars?
• Do the forecasters have a track record of collaborating and working well with other community organizations in the avalanche and search and rescue fields?
• Is the forecast area clearly defined?
• Do forecasts have an expiration date and time?
• Do the danger levels follow a scale like the one on our advisory page, consistent with the US backcountry danger scale but adapted for urban use?
• Is the staff paid at professional levels to ensure that the program meets its standards and that fieldwork and updates get done on time?
  

The Southeast Alaska Avalanche Center is an educational nonprofit corporation. As part of the network of avalanche centers in the US, it is our intent to serve as the snow avalanche education and information source for Southeast Alaska, from Ketchikan to Yakutat.

Our programs have always been strong in research and snow science, and in the areas of urban, highway, industrial, snowmobile, snowboard, ski, high-latitude maritime, big mountain, and heliski avalanche issues.

This information on this website is one of the key educational resources we provide. Be sure to check our Course Handouts & Avalanche Resources page for a wealth of detailed Level 1 and 2 course handouts, maps, presentations, and a whole section of urban, backcoutry, and general avalanche information. So far as we know, we are the only people teaching avalanche courses who have put so much of our course material on the web.

Information on our AK Block research project is under the Research link.

The Weather and Avalanche Links page connects to the best of the web for avalanche sites and Southeast Alaska weather forecasting.

The News page has updates on current Center and related topics, the Education page connects you to schedules and fully detailed information on avalanche courses in our area, and the Juneau Urban Avalanche Information page has maps and discussion of the local issues.

We will not be issuing advisories this winter, but we still conduct a wide variety of courses from community presentations to professional and industrial training, maintain this website, continue our research projects, train our crew, and provide avalanche information and expertise for the news media, the community, government, and emergency responses.

Alaska has the highest total and per capita avalanche deaths of all the states and urban Juneau has the largest potential avalanche disaster in North America, yet despite a state statute mandating that the Department of Public Safety run a statewide government-funded avalanche program we are the only avalanche state that does not have one. As a tiny nonprofit, we cannot fund our local program or statewide system without the support of concerned citizens. You can learn more about us and find out how to help us serve you better through the How You Can Help link. You can also join as a member or make donations to help our efforts.

NOTICE OF NONDISCRIMINATORY POLICY: The Southeast Alaska Avalanche Center admits students of any race, color, national and ethnic origin to all the rights, privileges, programs, and activities generally accorded or made available to students at the Center. It does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, sex, age, disability, user group, veteran status, sexual orientation, or national and ethnic origin in administration of its educational policies, admissions policies, scholarships, and other Center administered programs.